What I lay out is dire. Every decent American who believes in free and fair elections and true representational democracy, and who rejects damaging conspiracy theories, malevolent propaganda, and corruption, needs to focus on what’s at stake — and know the microscopic margin of error we face to stave off a growing inevitability.
The Republican Party is a comet barreling toward all of us Americans.
A large fragment propelled by the lethal fuel of The Big Lie, enabled by people not “looking up,” will hit in 2022. This is a certainty.
At minimum, it will likely obliterate the House. We must try to mitigate this damage by spreading awareness of the implications, because what follows — and what eclipses — this large fragment is an even more massive chunk.
In 2024, that behemoth will hit, gassed up by new GOP laws specifically designed to make its destruction complete and enduring — meaning the end of majority say in the United States. The level of this devastation depends on the amount of hemorrhaging we’re able to prevent in 2022.
But the midterms aren’t just about the House, which helped save us in 2020. It’s about Governor and Secretary of State positions in key states. GOP Governors can enable new suppression laws set forth by GOP legislatures in states such as PA, MI and WI (all toss-ups in 2022). And Trumper Secretary of State candidates elected to GOP-controlled states can refuse to act in good faith more easily as a result of new anti-democratic laws. More on that later.
Only the collective outrage from citizens informed about civics (good luck with that), including enough principled Republicans (good luck with that), will alter the GOP aim of transforming the U.S. into a right-wing autocracy by 2025 — when the will of the people will be nil.
This isn’t a classic case of pendulums swinging to the right and left. This is about the pendulum being jury-rigged and jammed to the right forever. I’m not alone in this assertion. Scholars in other countries have recently and extraordinarily warned democratic allies to prepare for a scenario in which the U.S. transitions to a right-wing autocracy. As Geoffrey Skelley of FiveThirtyEight put it, “Rather than ebbing, the movement on the right to threaten free and fair elections appears to be picking up speed. The nation’s small-d democratic backslide is already happening — the question now is just how far will it go?”[1]
As we lounge around swiping through Tik Tok and Instagram, watching action movies and playing video games, a slow-moving coup is moving forward. This is not hyperbole.
Unfortunately, the outrage of the electorate currently resides in a cult that’s been convinced that it’s been wronged, enabled by a political party that no longer believes in good faith or the health of democracy. This is indisputable. Many principled Republicans who left their party also concur with this devastating delineation between the parties. There is no equivalency between the parties when it comes to this. Good luck proving otherwise.
As we know, Republicans already enjoy built-in advantages via the antiquated Electoral College. In the last 20 years, only four of those years resulted in a Republican President getting more votes. Although GOP Senators currently comprise 50% of the senate, their electoral votes represent 42 million FEWER people than the Democratic 50%.
Over the years, Republicans have tolerated democracy, but as demographics changed exponentially out of their favor, they’ve all but abandoned the pretense of supporting free and fair elections, as evidenced from barefaced voter suppression and the enabling of the Big Lie. That’s heartbreaking and ironic given that the U.S. used to be the arbiter and inspiration of such things worldwide.
Republican disdain for democracy was made apparent when they prevented a sitting Democratic President from exercising his right to appoint a SCOTUS nominee. Or, say, in Wisconsin when Democratic Governor Tony Evers was elected and the Republican legislature promptly moved to remove his powers. “The ends justify the means” seems to be the GOP mantra. Indelible damage — caused by flipping the birdie to playing by the rules — be damned! As Al Franken puts it, “Listening to Mitch McConnell talk about the decline of bipartisanship is like listening to Jeffrey Dahmer complain about the decline of dinner party etiquette.”[2]
Case in point: The Voting Rights Act was commonly renewed over the years by both parties in the Senate. Even when last reauthorized in 2006, every Republican senator voted for it (it would have been politically dangerous not to at that time). But in 2014, not one Republican senator voted to renew the Act through an amendment after it was gutted by SCOTUS. Not one.
Unencumbered by that pesky voting rights thing, Republicans acted faster than coked-up horses out of the gate by enacting voter suppression laws. As these laws become more blatantly oppressive, Republicans spin a spool of propaganda (thanks, Tucker) that these enhanced tactics somehow allow “more Americans to vote” by keeping non-citizens from voting. You read that right. This wack-a-doodle logic would be laughable if it weren’t so evil.
Great propaganda artists are masters at turning the tables by accusing the other side of exactly what they’re doing. (“Alternative facts,” anyone?) Somehow, Trumpers believe the U.S. could end because Democrats want Americans to vote easily — you know, those “certain” Americans such as the ones in big cities or the ones who don’t “look” like them. The GOP sells their treachery by defining voter rights as a “power grab.” (They’re good at coining phrases to sell scams, such as “Trickle Down.”)
The FACT is that out of 156 million votes cast in the last election, there were 1,300 instances of voter fraud committed by Americans, not non-citizens. That’s a strikingly infinitesimal number. This is corroborated by election and law enforcement data.
And remind your crazy uncle that the penalty for a non-citizen voting is so severe (criminal prosecution and deportation) and the payoff (one vote) so minimal for any individual, it’s preposterous to think that this occurs at anything other than a microscopic degree.
But this GOP fable is the fuel required to justify voter suppression laws… and for the casual Republican to feel less dirty supporting them. You’d think that any truly decent run-of-the-mill Republican would feel dirty enough that their party doesn’t support the concept that voting should be EASY, not harder for Americans. It says a lot about a person, I guess. It’s sort of like having a friend who secretly moves your chess pieces when you’re not looking — or who watches your opponent move your pieces and says nothing. Why would you even have a friend like that?
You may argue that we had success in 2018 and 2020 despite all these immoral restrictions — that the collective will of the majority was able to overcome GOP obstacles when massive voter turnout overwhelmed a rigged system. (Had it not been for gerrymandering and redistricting, this victory over the far right would have yielded far more seats.)
But, enter the Big Lie…
History will show that this grift — hatched and stoked by a corrupt, mentally ill megalomaniac — dealt a mortal blow, draining the lifeblood of U.S. democracy: our faith in it.
So, here’s the clincher. Rather than help quell the loss of this faith, the GOP has seized the moment and recently enacted new unthinkable laws designed not just to suppress but to literally encourage overturning election results and invalidating the votes of Americans. You read that correctly. So now you may get where I’m coming from.
Don’t believe me? Here are a few of those measures the GOP is taking that would give any dictator a hard-on. Mind you, these are in addition to stricter voting suppression laws such as ending or curtailing early voting, eliminating or severely limiting mail-in voting, making polling places and lock boxes too far for “certain” people, and making it against the law to give water to those forced to wait eight hours in lines by design — just to mention a few that helped give us the edge in 2020. Ready?
1. In Arizona, the GOP has removed the authority over election-related litigation from the Democrat Secretary of State and shifted it to the GOP state attorney general. Tellingly, this change expires in January 2023 when the Democrat Secretary of State’s term ends. Now that’s strange, eh?
2. In Georgia, the GOP majority on the State Election Board can now arbitrarily replace election officials — with anyone. Since the boards have the power to decide challenges over voter eligibility and certification, this law creates a way for Republicans to change the results in Democratic counties by disqualifying votes — or even by refusing to certify results based upon bogus challenges similar to 2020. Yes, this is now the law in Georgia. But I’m sure they’ll act in good faith.
3. In Iowa, officials can now face felony charges or be fined $10,000 for speaking up and taking any actions if they see malfeasance, thereby potentially defying the GOP Secretary of State. Such rules could have a chilling effect whereby local officials may not govern as they see fit out of fear of being targeted. Are we in Zimbabwe now?
4. Because of threats made by Trump supporters and the resulting stress of the 2020 election, many election officials in swing states have quit en masse — a huge loss of experience that could weaken the system. This exodus has created vacancies that supporters of the Big Lie have sought to fill. No doubt some good faith actors there.
5. The far right has now made a concerted effort to recruit precinct officers who decide poll worker assignments and choose local election boards, increasing the likelihood of future GOP election chicanery. Nothing to see here.
Wait, there’s more!
6. A Republican proposal before Arizona’s legislature would permit the legislature, by a simple majority vote, to ignore the state’s presidential vote and appoint the state’s electors in the Electoral College. Read that again.
7. Wisconsin GOP is considering ways to upend the state’s bipartisan election agency and assert GOP control over Wisconsin’s election results. Autocracy 101.
Democracy depends on people acting in good faith. As we saw in the 2020 election, a few Republicans, such as the Georgia Secretary of State, did so. This is why there’s an ardent push by Trump to replace him and other Secretaries of State, along with Governors in swing states, with Big Lie loyalists in 2022. A GOP governor elected to just one more swing state, such as PA, MI, or WI, will enable their GOP legislatures to employ voter restriction laws, making Republicans virtually invulnerable in 2024. And every one of those states is a toss-up. Trump is also running a loony loyalist for Governor of AZ. She not only proclaims the state shouldn’t have certified in 2020, but that people who did so should be put in prison. This is what we face.
What Trump failed to do in 2020 (overturning a democratic election with zero consequences from his party), the GOP has set out to accomplish in 2024 by laying the groundwork now. A probable GOP-controlled House will have an orange megalomaniac as its de facto Speaker. McCarthy will merely be his puppet.
Think about those implications. Will the far right ever over-reach to a wild degree, say, put Dr. Fauci on trial, have Benghazi-like Hunter Biden hearings, or make calls for Biden’s impeachment? Yes. And although history shows that overreach by a party has repercussions for the next election, the GOP’s power is practically so absolute now that they won’t care about taking a wrecking ball to our institutions and to the concept of good faith. Besides, with Trumpism in control, they will have no choice. Sorry, Liz.
For the first time in our history, we’re faced with one of the two major parties standing for autocracy. It not only portends mortifying repercussions for the U.S., but worldwide where autocrats have become increasingly emboldened, such as in Brazil, Hungary and, of course, Russia. We’re no longer the shining example and enforcer of democratic values that pressured the Berlin wall to come down. We won’t have our democratic allies’ backs. Allies share values. When this breaks, it’s impossible not to see a more fractured and dangerous environment for democracy worldwide.
GOP slime bag Senator Rick Scott has even proposed plans to pass voter suppression laws NATIONWIDE if the GOP takes over all three branches in 2024. At that point, any notion of a democratic Republic would cease to exist. If the GOP retains their House majority in 2024, with potential alternate electors being sent to a willing House, and SCOTUS powerless to intervene in House matters, need I say more? The fewer seats the GOP attains in 2022, the better chances Americans have of flipping it back in 2024 to avoid a maelstrom — albeit this will be a mammoth task.
For 2021, passing a new Voting Rights Act (HR-1) was 100% impossible, given Manchin and Sinema’s opposition.
There is one, however, tinsel-thin sliver of hope — and probably our best: The Senate. To alter the dark circumstances we face, we could, in fact, hold on to it and ADD a non-Republican seat. This would give enough votes to pass a voting rights act. That seat is Tim Ryan of Ohio. As Steve Schmidt puts it, “It is the most important race in the country and Tim can win. He will be running against either a theocratic fascist, Josh Mandel, or fascist JD Vance. Both are frauds and loons unfit for the Senate.” Schmidt encourages donations be focused on this seat.[3]
Indeed, it all has to go this way to make a Ryan win even impactful. To avoid a full swing to the extreme right, the Democratic party can’t lose a single Senate seat. This is how tenuous the survival of U.S. democracy is at this juncture. I’d be lying if I said I was hopeful. But we have to try.
Even retired generals are warning of the possibility of a civil war in the military should it come down to one side not acting in good faith in 2024. Gee, I wonder who they might be? And what about divisions in the police, where Trump loyalists abound?
A voting rights act passed before 2024 would restore the DOJ’s power to curtail these anti-democratic voting measures. It’s our only strategy:
1) Keep the hemorrhaging in the House to a minimum.
2) Hold and add a Democratic seat to the Senate.
It’s a high order. But it’s our only chance of avoiding a bitter end to the American experiment.
Awareness of these stakes must build, and the gloves must come off for the majority of decent Americans who reject conspiracy theories, QAnon, Trumpism, and attacks on free and fair elections. These Americans are our only hope, as Princess Leia would say.
If only all of this were as simple as finding the plans to the Death Star and blowing it the fuck out of space.
But maybe we can at least deflect that comet just enough to save us, if we care enough.
If we look up.
[1] Skelley, Geoffrey. “How Jan. 6 Enabled Greater Interference in Our Elections.” FiveThirtyEight. FiveThirtyEight, January 6, 2022. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-jan-6-enabled-greater-interference-in-our-elections/.
[2] Coleman, Justine. “Al Franken Mocks McConnell: ‘like Listening to Jeffrey Dahmer Complain about the Decline of Dinner Party Etiquette’.” TheHill. The Hill, December 19, 2019. https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/475318-al-franken-mocks-mcconnells-senate-floor-statement-like-listening-to-jeffrey.
[3] Schmidt, Steve. “The Way to Fix This Reality Is to Donate to @Timryan in Ohio. It Is the Most Important Race in the Country and Tim Can Win. He Will Be Running against Either Theocratic Fascist @Joshmandelohio or Fascist @jdvance1. Both Are Frauds and Loons. They Are Unfit for the Senate and Https://T.co/Nvfetolocr.” Twitter. Twitter, January 13, 2022. https://twitter.com/SteveSchmidtSES/status/1481716297062764544.
